Malaria is a devastating disease that affects millions of people worldwide, but the fight against malaria is about to get even tougher, thanks to the impacts of climate change. As temperatures rise, mosquito behaviour changes, making it more difficult to prevent and treat the disease. Below, we explore the relationship between climate change and malaria, and what this means for the future of malaria elimination efforts.
Mosquitoes are highly sensitive to changes in climate. As the Earth warms up, the behaviour of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes will change, making it harder to stop the spread of the disease.
Warmer temperatures allow the malaria vector to develop faster, breed faster, bite more frequently, and expand into new habitats. This means that mosquito larvae will develop into adults faster, and the female mosquitoes will be able to spread the disease more quickly.
The malaria parasite’s development inside the mosquito is also highly dependent on temperature. At temperatures below 17⁰C and above 35⁰C, the parasite’s life cycle inside the mosquito cannot be completed. This prevents the transmission of malaria.
But as temperatures rise, mosquitoes can change their behaviour to spend more time resting in cooler spaces. This could allow the parasite to survive temperatures that would otherwise stop its development. Our current mosquito avoidance measures may not be enough to stop the consequences.
In addition to rising temperatures, climate change is also causing changes in the seasons, resulting in more frequent extreme heat days and fewer extreme cool days. Average temperatures are rising, and this means that winters are becoming warmer. This is allowing mosquitoes to breed and spread malaria in larger numbers during the winter months.
On the other hand, summers may become too hot for mosquito and parasite growth, potentially preventing malaria transmission through mosquito bites. The result of these changes could be a shift in the malaria transmission season from the summer months to the traditionally cooler autumn and winter months due to temperature rise on a national scale.
Rainfall also plays a major role in malaria transmission, with malaria incidence typically decreasing during drier El Niño years and increasing during wetter La Niña years. In countries like South Africa, where the adaptable malaria vector, Anopheles arabiensis, is a dominant transmitter, the malaria season (October to February) could be significant given the favourable conditions for malaria transmission and the relaxation of COVID-related restrictions on movement.
In South Africa, malaria is currently present in three provinces: Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal. Limpopo reports 62% of local cases, while KwaZulu-Natal reports only 6%. Over the past 50 years, annual temperatures in South Africa have been increasing faster than the global average, with the most extreme increases in Limpopo, where temperatures have risen by an average of 0.12⁰C every decade.
It is interesting to observe the climate change impacts on infections in the region. One must also take into consideration the current measures being taken to stop malaria. But if our government wants to end malaria infections in the country altogether, the possible effects of the future climate must be considered and prepared for.
The United Nations and the United States have both recognized the impacts of climate change on global health and have made commitments to mitigate the effects of climate change. While the relationship between climate change and malaria is complicated, there are steps that can be taken to prevent and treat the disease.
In spite of the climate crisis and the effects of climate change, we believe malaria can be stopped in South Africa. It will require a coordinated effort from multiple sectors and individuals. By working together and taking action at the global, national, and local levels, we can reduce the burden of this disease and improve the health of our people.